What’s Behind the Claim?
The new tax regime reintroduces VAT on aviation inputs and services, a move contrary to global aviation norms and ICAO standards, which generally oppose VAT on air services
Aviation operators argue this would dramatically raise operational costs, leading to potential collapse of local airlines, widespread job losses, and negative ripple effects including social instability .
When Is the Act Going Into Force?
President Tinubu signed the suite of tax reform bills collectively called the Nigeria Tax Act, 2025 on June 26, 2025 .
However, the reforms will officially take effect from January 1, 2026, providing a transition buffer for businesses and government agencies to prepare .
Key Considerations
Cripple operations within 48 hours- This is a warning of potential impact based on worst-case operational cost scenarios, not a confirmed immediate effect.
Implementation window The six‑month lead time offers opportunity for advocacy, seeking exemptions, and operational preparedness.
What Could Happen Before January 2026?
Without targeted sectoral consultations or exemptions, aviation operators fear the tax measures could impose unbearable financial strain .
Agencies like NCAA and NAMA also worry about loss of internally generated revenue due to the consolidation of tax authority under the new Nigeria Revenue Service (NRS) .
Legal and operational disputes may emerge, especially given prior concerns over unclear VAT revenue-sharing and agency roles .
In short: The "48-hour collapse" scenario is a dramatic but illustrative warning from AON against the aviation sector bearing new taxes. The reforms don’t kick in until January 1, 2026, giving stakeholders a critical window to engage, negotiate, and advocate for aviation-safe provisions.
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